Any way you look at this, you lose.
Paul Simon, “Mrs. Robinson”
That’s a pretty good description of the UK’s Brexit options. As I see it, there are three alternatives, all of which leave the country worse off than it is today:
- The government succeeds in making a deal and pushing it through Parliament. The deal continues to permit the free movement of goods between the UK and the continent, but it requires the UK to make annual payments and to live with EU rules without having a say on them. Services are not included in the deal. The government is then free to make its own trade deals with third parties, but lacks the bargaining leverage of the EU. This is the best case scenario.
- No deal is struck by the deadline. Chaos ensues. The government probably (but not certainly) falls in spite of its effort to spin its failure as an act of patriotism and good faith with the more rabid Brexiteers.
- The deal described in #1 is reached, but the government can’t sell it in Parliament, and it falls. Chaos is the result, and Labour wins power in the ensuing election.
Given these unappetizing alternatives, could a second referendum possibly be so bad?