We’ve all been living with Mueller and the Russia investigation so long that it seems like a natural part of the fabric of life. The reality of it, however, is that Mueller’s report will seem like a bombshell when it finally arrives, and it is bound to dominate the discussion in the months prior to the election.
I see three possible scenarios:
1. The report is a short document concluding that Trump did not commit any indictable offenses. There is so much inflammatory information already in the public record that a report of this nature would not put an end to the discussion, but it would give an enormous boost to the GOP.
2. The report concludes that Trump did, in fact, commit indictable offenses. Trump’s base will blow this off as the product of a “rigged” investigation, and it will not lead to impeachment, but it will definitely help Democrats in November.
3. The report is a lengthy narrative that provides plenty of support for the notion that Trump committed “High Crimes and Misdemeanors,” but concludes that no indictable offense occurred. Both sides furiously spin the report in their direction, there is no serious effort to impeach, and the report has little impact in November.
If I were a betting man, I would go with #3, but we just don’t know.