It would appear that Mueller’s work will be done in the next few months, and will have a seismic impact on the midterms. As a result, it is appropriate to review how Trump has reacted to date, and what is likely to occur between now and November:
1. Denial: Trump was relatively new to the job when Mueller was appointed, and while he was clearly angered by the decision, he didn’t know how to stop it. He and his closest advisers also undoubtedly thought he would be exonerated.
2. Mixed opinions: While Bannon told him to fight Mueller at every step, most of his lawyers told him to cooperate in the expectation of a quick exoneration. At this stage, he took their advice.
3. Going to war: By the later stages of 2017, Trump was sick of the investigation, saw it in primarily political terms, and no longer believed that a quick exoneration was possible. He escalated his attacks on Mueller and laid the ground work for firing him. Out of fear, laziness, or calculation, however, he did not pull the trigger.
4. End game: With the midterms just a few months away and the Kavanaugh nomination at risk, Trump is no longer in a position to put an end to the investigation. Whatever the result, he will just have to grin and bear it.
I predicted months ago that he would fire Mueller. That was the most likely outcome at the time, but it didn’t happen, and the time for it is gone. What will Mueller’s work product look like? That is tomorrow’s topic.