While Putin is winning in Syria, he is losing (at least so far) in Ukraine. Here’s why:
- Putin’s objective is not to physically occupy Ukraine or eliminate its nominal legal independence (that would be too risky and expensive); it is to turn Ukraine into a willing economic, military, and political vassal of Russia.
- He was very close to success prior to the revolution, at which time his plans went completely out the window.
- He retaliated by sending his green men to occupy Crimea, and by supporting separatists in the remainder of Ukraine. His allies control a substantial portion of eastern Ukraine. The ultimate prize, however, is the whole of Ukraine, not just the eastern rust belt, which has limited value to him.
- His intention is clearly to use the potential reunification of Ukraine as a carrot, and various economic measures as a stick, to change public opinion and bring the government to heel.
- It isn’t working. The government of Ukraine has shown no inclination to return to the fold in exchange for reunification. There is little or no public support for such a change in policy. In the meantime, the US and the EU have imposed punishing sanctions on Russia as a result of his aggression and the outrageous actions of his separatist allies, and he has lost all of his credibility with the EU governments that really matter.
Putin is playing a long game here. It is not impossible that Ukraine will implode under the pressure he can apply in the end. As of today, however, a betting man would bet against him.