Putin has accomplished all of his objectives in Syria, which were, in no particular order:
- To make it clear to the world that Russia is still a great power, and must be reckoned with even far from its borders;
- To save the bacon of a fellow strong man;
- To divide the EU over the refugee issue;
- To make the US and the EU look weak and indecisive; and
- To protect Russian investments in the country.
He had advantages in this effort: his assistance to an existing regime was consistent with international law; he could rely on the help of Hezbollah on the ground; and he didn’t have to engage in any nation-building, as an experienced and reasonably competent strong man was already in place. The problem, however, is that the situation in Syria is still unstable, and his partners will want to use him for their own ends. Iran and Hezbollah want protection from Israel, and Assad wants the eastern part of the country back, even though American-backed forces operate there.
What will Putin do next? I seriously doubt he has any interest in sticking his neck out for either Assad or Iran. He’s either going to have to broker a deal that everyone can tolerate or declare victory and pull back to the maximum extent possible.