Does Donald Trump believe in the Pax Americana? If you just look at his statements during the campaign, the answer would be an unequivocal no. In his view, Uncle Sap has been taken for a ride by the rest of the world. We can’t afford to protect human rights and maintain order outside our borders. The international rule of law is just a fig leaf for power relationships. It’s all about ridding ourselves of expensive external commitments, reducing trade deficits, refusing to engage in “nation-building,” renegotiating treaties on a bilateral basis, and investing at home. That’s how we make America great again.
Trump as President has been much less consistent, largely because he loves the display of military power, and he can’t stand the idea of losing wars. His Syria policy changes from day to day. He complained about the futility of the war in Afghanistan, was reluctantly persuaded to make a larger and open-ended commitment to it, and then apparently told Rand Paul that we should get out. He supports Taiwan, but threatens to sell them out for concessions on trade or North Korea. He revels in his own unpredictability, while the rest of the world gasps and wonders what fresh hell is coming next.
Where is he going with this? My guess is that his foreign policy will get more isolationist with time, as he gains more confidence in his ability to make decisions without the help of his advisers, all of whom support the Pax Americana in one way or another. However, his ego and militarism will continue to prohibit him from being completely consistent. We will stagger on aimlessly as before.