Who Wins a US-Iran War?

Regardless of the military outcome, it won’t be us.  Our vital interests in the Middle East are limited to preventing terrorism within our borders and maintaining the flow of oil.   Defeating Iran will accomplish neither.

It won’t be China, which still depends on Middle East oil.  Expect the Chinese to engage in frantic efforts to mediate the conflict.

It probably won’t be Iran, which lacks the resources and expertise to win the war.  The best they can hope for is a political/strategic victory.

It could be the Israelis and Saudis, but that depends on our willingness to impose regime change on Iran.  Merely engaging in a “cut the grass” effort with regard to Iranian nuclear and missile facilities won’t satisfy them, because it won’t stop Iran’s efforts to control Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

No, the real and unquestioned winner will be Vladimir Putin, because: (a) the war makes Russia’s oil more valuable; (b) America will be further estranged from its allies, who won’t support the war; and (c) he may well be able to exact a price in exchange for his neutrality.

Has Trump considered that?  Almost certainly not.