As I’ve noted previously, tariffs split the GOP; PBPs and CLs hate them, while Reactionaries (free-trading farmers excepted) strongly support them. The split closely resembles the division over immigration; both sides are very passionate on the subject.
The Democrats have their own division. The Sanders wing of the party echoed Trump’s position on protectionism during the 2016 campaign, although Sanders illogically also supported high levels of immigration, and the voters appeared to support Trump’s more consistent position over his. Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton, who was assumed by all parties to be a free trader, felt compelled to water those views down in response to Sanders’ appeal to white working men. It made her look weak and hypocritical, and it did her no good in November.
The dynamics of the issue will be different in 2020. While some prominent Democrats have actively supported Trump’s tariffs, polls showed that the blue base supported free trade even before Trump made protectionism toxic, so I can’t imagine that the party will nominate someone who is determined to out-Trump the man on golf cart. On the other hand, there obviously is an argument that support for protection could help swing the Rust Belt voters who won the 2016 election for Trump back to the Democrats. In light of that, what will the party do?
Fortunately, there is a logical middle ground: to identify Chinese mercantilism as the real issue, and to propose solutions to it that don’t involve imposing tariffs. I will discuss that in a post tomorrow.