A shutdown is more likely than not at some point during the Trump years. If it does, will the winner be:
- Trump, because it shows him to be a strong leader trying to drain the swamp?;
- The Democrats, because the Republicans are in control of Congress, and saving DACA is a popular cause?; or
- None of the above.
I vote for #3, because a shutdown, at this point, is likely only to reinforce the views that everyone already has about the current administration. Both bases will be happy, for the reasons cited above. The general opinion of government will fall slightly further, but neither Trump or the Democrats will win or lose.
The real losers will be Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, who will have proved, yet again, that they cannot control their own side.