There are essentially four reasons why people voted for Trump in 2016:
- I agree with Trump’s white nationalist program: 20 percent of the electorate.
- I would vote for a ham sandwich over any Democrat: 20 percent.
- I have reservations about Trump, but I will take my chances with the devil I don’t know over “Crooked Hillary”: 5 percent.
- We need a successful businessman to put an end to dysfunction in Washington: 5 percent.
The Democrats can’t reach the first two groups. The last two are clearly in play, and are subject to the Democrats’ control. What they need to avoid is nominating a candidate who replaces the last two rationales with: Trump may be awful, but he’s still better than x, given his unsavory past; and I don’t like Trump, but I prefer him to x, because he wants to raise my taxes.