We passed the 10% mark of Trump’s term a little less than two weeks ago (I know, it seems like an eternity). Given that, it seems appropriate to review the questions I raised about his administration before he took office, and to see where we stand today:
1. Which economic scenario is occurring? I indicated that there were three possibilities: “Funhouse Reagan” (huge tax cuts with minimal spending cuts); “Reverse Robin Hood” (the same tax cuts with big cuts to anti-poverty programs); and “Trade Warrior” (one of the first two with trade wars). My prediction was “Funhouse Reagan.”
Thus far, the tax cuts have not become reality, although they are certainly in the works. The Trump budget fell strongly on the side of “Reverse Robin Hood,” but few people in Congress take it seriously. Conflicts on trade to date have just been talk. The most likely outcome is still “Funhouse Reagan.”
2. Would we have an unconventional foreign policy, or just a blustery traditional one? On style, the former; on substance, more the latter. Trump has gone out of his way to offend our allies and to relinquish world leadership to the Chinese. He also undercuts our diplomatic efforts virtually at every turn. He hasn’t sold Europe to the Russians or embraced Assad in Syria, however.
3. How much damage would he do to the Constitution? Thus far, the judiciary and the political checks and balances in the system have held their own. It’s early days, however; call me after we have a legitimate crisis.