In the final analysis, the biggest threat to Trump is the undoubted fact that the vast majority of Republicans on Capitol Hill would prefer to see Mike Pence in the White House. Sure, there would be some backlash from Trump’s die hard white nationalist supporters, but where else are they going to go? Are they going to wish they had voted for Hillary? Not a chance.
And so, if it appears that Trump is leading them off a cliff, the GOP may be prepared to take preemptive action. The question then is, what would happen next?
Pence would take the drama out of governing. He would be sane and competent. He wouldn’t send provocative tweets or leak classified information to the Russians. He wouldn’t start wars in a fit of pique. He wouldn’t lie every time he opens his mouth. For all of that, the country would have reason to be grateful.
On the other hand, the GOP House and Senate leadership would have an easier time getting its tax cutting, benefit cutting, and deregulatory agenda through the system. Something like the Trump tax program would be more likely to pass with steady leadership from the White House, and entitlement cuts would probably be on the table to a greater extent than they are today.
In other words, Trump is the sizzle, but Pence is the steak. There would be clear benefits to getting rid of Donny Rotten, but changing the agenda (except to some extent on free trade and entitlements) isn’t one of them.