The bottom line facts regarding the relationship between the US and the Koreas are as follows:
- North Korea already has enough firepower (both nuclear and conventional) to destroy South Korea, but cannot currently project it to the US;
- The progress made on their nuclear program, and their missiles, consequently threatens the US, but is irrelevant to South Korea; so
- The interests of the historically allied US and South Korean governments in this critical matter are largely inconsistent.
Now, add the new South Korean government, which clearly wants to engage in a “sunshine policy,” to the mix. “Sunshine” means that additional US sanctions have absolutely no chance of success in bringing the North Korean government to heel. What are Trump’s options if the Moon government puts this approach into practice?
Acquiescence to the North Korean first strike capability against the US, or war. That’s it.