The analogy connecting Trump and Le Pen is obvious and mostly accurate, but there are differences between the two campaigns that probably dictate a different result:
1. Trump got there first: There is nothing about his bumbling administration to date that would inspire confidence in Le Pen, even if she is more competent than he is.
2. Le Pen isn’t running against Hillary Clinton: The insider/outsider dichotomy that was such a big part of the American campaign doesn’t work in the French runoff.
3. Le Pen presents a more obvious threat to the investments of the French voting public: Trump didn’t have to promise to pull out of the euro, with all of the short-term implications that brings.
4. Le Pen doesn’t have an apparently successful business background: Plenty of people voted for Trump based on his record of getting things done in the private sector. Le Pen is a career politician with no record of accomplishing anything.
5. Trump swaggers more convincingly: It’s just harder for a woman to swagger. For once, we should be grateful for sexism.
The only way Le Pen wins in May is if turnout is extremely low. That is unlikely to happen, but the possibility can’t be completely dismissed. She has a puncher’s chance.