Viewed as a stand-alone, Germany in 2017 is unquestionably a success story. Unemployment and inflation are low; the country is running a large trade surplus; and the debt is at reasonable levels. If you’re a German today, life is pretty good.
Viewed as the leader of Europe, Germany has been an abysmal failure. Its attempts to Teutonize its neighbors by imposing austerity have led to economic stagnation throughout much of the EU and a corresponding nationalist backlash. Putin is looking more dangerous by the day, and even the US may now see the Germans more as an enemy than a friend. Britain is leaving the EU, whose very existence can no longer be taken for granted. If you’re a German today, you’re looking for friends, and you’re not sure whom you can call.
Since the Alternative for Germany tainted its anti-euro stance by hobnobbing with racists, there is no likelihood of any meaningful change in German opinions regarding the EU in the foreseeable future. My guess is that the coalition will continue, and that the German government will pull back from its unrewarding EU leadership role and hope nothing evil fills the void. That will be the topic of tomorrow’s post.