The condition of France in 2020 is obviously going to depend largely on the outcome of this year’s election. If the current polls are accurate, and there is no particularly good reason to doubt it, the two finalists will be outsiders with very limited support in the National Assembly. I can foresee four different scenarios, only one of which is positive:
1. Macron wins, and succeeds in building a bipartisan center-right coalition for change within the current system: This will only happen if he has very impressive political skills.
2. Macron wins, but cannot get anything meaningful done through the legislative process: France continues the Hollande drift, only more so.
3. Le Pen wins and attempts to make constitutional changes by referendum, but fails: The political temperature of the country reaches new highs, but nothing is accomplished.
4. Le Pen wins and succeeds in pulling France out of the euro and the EU by referendum: I don’t see how that makes France great again.
If I were a betting man, I would put my money on #2, but that remains to be seen.