Several months before the election, I posted a satirical faux future news story about a deal in which Trump and Putin agreed to carve Europe into spheres of influence. Now that the election is over, something at least vaguely similar to my post is likely to become reality, so it is time to analyze its pros and cons.
For Putin, the benefits of a deal are obvious: the US drops its sanctions; recognizes the annexation of Crimea; and gives him a free hand in Ukraine. His ultimate objective, turning Ukraine into a Russian vassal state, becomes feasible again. The question for the day is, what does he have to offer in exchange for these clear and tangible benefits?
Here are the possibilities:
1. Assistance against terrorists: There are several problems with this. First of all, the war against IS is already being won; the caliphate is likely to expire in the next year or so without Russian help. Second, Putin can’t help with domestic terrorists even if he wanted to do so. Third, the US and Russian armies were designed to fight each other, not to cooperate, so getting them to share intelligence and otherwise work together would be very difficult. Finally, the Russian style of fighting terror–essentially, collective punishment on a massive scale–won’t go over well with the American public, even if Trump turns out to be an enthusiast, which seems likely.
2. Assistance with Iran: The Russians didn’t want an Islamic neighbor with a bomb on their border, so getting them to cooperate in the negotiations that culminated in the Iran nuclear deal was not that difficult. On the other hand, Russia (reasonably) sees Iran, not as a terrorist state run by crazy ayatollahs, but as a responsible business partner, so the likelihood of persuading them to apply pressure is pretty low. The most important question here is, with or without a deal, would Putin extend the Russian nuclear umbrella over Iran to deter an American attack? I doubt it.
3. Assistance with China: If we aren’t going to use a rules-based system to try to keep the Chinese in line, the only real alternative is brute force. Russia could help by attracting Chinese military attention away from the South China Sea. But would the Russians really agree to do that? The risks would probably outweigh the rewards.
In short, in the real world, the Russians don’t have much to offer us, and they probably won’t deliver on anything they do promise.