Bush 43’s massive ground assault against Saddam was patterned after his father’s success in the Gulf War, and with good reason; an occupation was necessary to uncover the non-existent weapons of mass destruction, and to refashion Iraq as a liberal democracy that would transform the Middle East. The war, of course, was a disaster that cost thousands of lives and trillions of dollars.
To Obama, the lesson of Iraq was not to do “stupid stuff.” He was determined to maintain the Pax Americana at the lowest possible cost, which typically meant relying on allies and unconventional warfare. He had some successes, and he unquestionably did reduce the direct costs of American intervention. However, the indirect costs of his unwillingness to escalate in Syria included terrorism, a refugee crisis, and, in all likelihood, some loss of American prestige.
Trump, as we know, has a quick temper and a very short attention span. He is also determined to make the world feel the power of our military, which he will undoubtedly view as an extension of his own ego. On the other hand, he has no use for Bush-style occupations and nation building. How will he square the circle? By shock and awe aerial campaigns. It is the only plausible answer.