Month: January 2017

There are times when it appears that we are reliving the 1930’s; nationalism, some of it thuggish, is on the march.  You could attribute it to bad economic conditions and the failures of liberal government, but the fact is that things aren’t even close to being as bad as they were in the 1930’s, unless you live in Greece.   Growth in the US, which elected Trump, the Philippines, which elected Duterte, and the UK, which supported Brexit, is actually fairly robust.  The logical question, then, is what is going on here?

I may be old-fashioned, but I can’t help thinking that the current impatience with democratic norms is being driven by two factors:  technology that provides us with instant self-gratification; and a universal comic book culture which leads us to believe that superheroes are there to save us if we can only identify them.  As a result, Trump actually ran his campaign as a Bruce Wayne/Batman kind of figure, and there is plenty of reason to believe that Duterte actually is a vigilante.

This isn’t going to change until the new “superheroes” discredit themselves, and the supporters of liberal democracy work harder to make their case.

Imagine a scenario in which all American consumers, individuals and corporations alike, agreed not to buy any Chinese products for a year.  Since this action was not ratified or mandated by the government in any way, the Chinese did not retaliate against our exports, so we are now running a large trade surplus with China.

What would be the result?  Prices would soar.  Goods for which there is no alternative supplier outside of China would be completely unavailable.  Supply chains would be disrupted.  There would be no new iPhones.  The Fed would raise interest rates to keep prices under control.  The dollar would go up, damaging our ability to export to the rest of the world.  Real estate prices would decline.  We would have a complete nightmare on our hands.

In Trump’s eyes, this scenario constitutes “winning at trade.”

 

On our new man at Commerce named Ross.

He’s got billions, but Trump’s now his boss.

He’ll take on the Chinese

And bring Xi to his knees.

He believes that our gain is their loss.

I predicted months before the election that Trump could win if and only if he and the media persuaded people that Clinton was an equally bad choice.  Under those circumstances, the candidate promising change would have a slight advantage over the status quo candidate.

That is exactly what happened.  Moderate Republican and independent voters with deep concerns about Trump’s qualifications, commitment to democratic norms, and character broke for him late because they viewed Clinton as being equally compromised as a result of the bogus e-mail issue.  For all of the talk about white working class voters, “whitelash,” and the rest, that is what decided the election;  Trump’s “deplorable” core supporters weren’t even close to being sufficiently numerous to put him over the hump.

But Trump can’t run against Clinton anymore.  His approval ratings are pathetic for an incoming President.  No one in the GOP Congress owes him his seat.  The repeal of Obamacare has the potential to turn into a complete fiasco.  The MSM will be hounding him for his mistakes and conflicts of interest without providing the familiar caveat that the other side is equally as bad.  In short, he’s facing a very rocky road, so expect him to look for ways to drive up his ratings in short order.

Let’s just hope that doesn’t include war, but don’t be surprised if it does.

On the Chinese calendar, 2017 is the Year of the Rooster.  In the US, on the other hand, it is much more likely to be the Year of the Chicken, because you can anticipate that the Trump Administration will be playing chicken with its adversaries, real and perceived, around the globe.  The most likely military confrontations will be with North Korea, China, and Iran.

I would bet on North Korea being first on the list, because:  (a) neither sanctions nor incentives has worked to modify the regime’s behavior; (b) there is a worldwide consensus regarding the regime; (c) the clock is ticking on North Korea’s ability to launch a missile that can hit the US; and (d) victory there would strengthen Trump’s hand in the forthcoming confrontation with the Chinese over the trade deficit and the South China Sea.

We’re entering a world the likes of which hasn’t been seen in my lifetime.  We’ll know a lot more about it at this time next year, assuming that we’re all still here to talk about it.

She’s known as the Queen of the May.

Her cynical side’s on display.

She’s backing the Don.

Her attempt’s a bit wan.

But hypocrisy must have its day.