Barack Obama is fond of referring to “the arc of history,” a phrase he apparently lifted from MLK. “The arc of history” is a purely Western concept, born in the Enlightenment; medieval Christians would have found it incomprehensible. The gist of it is that mankind, either by God’s plan or simply through the benefit of experience, is destined to become wiser, more prosperous, and more free over time.
Marxism is based on dialectical materialism, a theory of change over time that is completely consistent with the “arc of history.” To a Marxist, as to us, time is linear. The Chinese calendar, on the other hand, runs on a twelve year cycle, which suggests that, rather than improving, the human experience simply repeats itself over and over in different forms.
Leaving aside the fundamental contradiction inherent in a supposedly Marxist state with a cyclical idea of time, the calendar has significant implications for China and its relations with the rest of the world. China is a very old civilization with periods of greatness, attributed by its people to strong government, interrupted by periods of weakness and anarchy. The belief that time and events are cyclical undoubtedly made the man-made disasters following the Chinese Revolution easier to bear, because the people knew that things would inevitably turn around at some point. Furthermore, the Chinese clearly and reasonably believe that the wheel has turned in their favor, and that their nation is bound to regain the predominance it enjoyed prior to the 19th Century, because that is the natural order of things. It will not be easy for Trump, or anyone else, to persuade them otherwise.
With that, a happy new year to all who observe the Chinese calendar. In keeping with past practice, the next week will be devoted to topics pertaining to China.