Month: November 2016

There once was a woman named Hill.

She had both the way and the will.

She thought she would win

But her ear’s a bit tin

And the country is paying the bill.

For the Saudis, a Trump Administration is like the proverbial box of chocolates: they just don’t know what they’re getting.

On the one hand, Trump, like Obama but unlike Clinton, has openly expressed doubts about the kingdom’s value as an ally.  He has indicated that he would demand large payments from them for protection, and he clearly intends to abandon their Sunni surrogates in Syria.  On the other hand, he has also suggested that he plans to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, a course of action that could very well lead to a war between the US and the Saudis’ chief nemesis.

Which way will this go?  In all likelihood, Trump hasn’t given the issue much thought, so if he doesn’t know, neither does anyone else.  My guess is that the outcome will be dictated largely by his choice of advisers.  If he surrounds himself with members of the Republican foreign policy establishment, the Saudis will have less reason for concern.

Trump’s immediate priority is to get rid of IS.  Iran is an uneasy ally in that battle, so I would not expect him to take any immediate action on the nuclear deal after he takes office.  Once IS is gone, however, things may change.

Trump can’t expect any help from any of the other parties to the deal in the renegotiation process, so crippling sanctions are no longer a viable option.  The only credible threat he can make is war.  And what kind of war would that be? An invasion similar to Iraq, only on a much larger scale?  Given his after-the-fact position on the Iraq War, why would anyone take that seriously?

No, the most plausible threat he could make would be a nuclear strike.   Don’t be shocked if that happens.

Sarah Palin, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Perry have just left LaGuardia Airport.  They get into a cab.

CD:  Where are you going, folks?

PR:  Trump Tower, please.

SP:  We’re off to see the Wizard!

CD:  Huh?

SP:  He channeled the anger of all real Americans and got elected President. They call him the Wizard of Id.

RP:  What, like the old cartoon?  I don’t get it.

PR:  Of course you don’t.  That’s why you need his help.

The cab driver takes them through multi-cultural neighborhoods in Brooklyn.

SP:  Look at all of those strange people!  They don’t look like real Americans to me.  I bet not a one of them has ever shot a moose from a snowmobile.

MR:  You’re not in Alaska anymore, Sarah.

SP:  You betcha!

They pass a group of young men hanging out on a street corner.

PR:  Look at those lazy bums!  They’re just taking advantage of the hammock of dependency!  We need to cut their benefits, now!

MR:  Don’t you ever take a day off, Paul?

PR:  Never!  I can’t rest until I’ve taken away all of the benefits for the undeserving poor.  We need the money for the tax cuts for rich people, anyway.

MR:  Well, they don’t vote for us, so let it rip.

They arrive at Trump Tower, enter the building, and address the receptionist.

SP:  We’re here to see the Wizard!

R:  Who are you?

SP:  Four Republican celebrities!

R:  I’ll let him know you’re here.

Trump descends the famous gold escalator about fifteen minutes later.

DT:  You’re here to ask favors of me.  What do you want?

MR:  Courage!

RP:  A brain!

PR:  A heart!

SP:  To go back to Alaska!

DT:  You’re asking a lot of me.  He thinks for a minute, then turns to Perry and gives him a piece of paper.

RP:  What’s this?

DT:  A certificate of completion from Trump University.

RP:  Will that prove I’m smart?

DT:  Let me put it this way:  it’s worthless, but lots of people paid for it, and you got it for nothing.  That makes you smart.

RP:  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!

PR:  What about me?

DT:  Well, if you’ll agree with me to put off any cuts to Social Security and Medicare, you’ll prove you have a heart.  It’s in our best interests politically, anyway, so it doesn’t cost you anything.

PR:  OK.  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!

MR:  And me?

Trump hands him a small box.

MR:  A box of condoms!  What does it mean?

DT:  You had the nerve to make fun of my size during one of the debates.  It proves you have courage.  Or, at least, you did for a short time.  Consider this a memento.

MR:  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!

SP:  And me?

DT:  Don’t you want to go back to Kansas?

SP:  No, Sam Brownback has run that state into the ground.  I just want to go home to Wasilla.

DT:  OK, you can have a ride on my private plane.

SP:  Thank you, Mr. Wizard!  Isn’t that expensive?

DT:  Don’t worry about it.  My accountants will figure out a way to write it off.  It’s not like I pay taxes or anything.

Trump returns to his office on the escalator.  The others leave happy.

 

 

There’s a Joe Jackson song from “Night and Day II” in which the narrator refers to the need for “nonalcoholic whiskey and Giuliani charm.”  The idea, of course, was that “Giuliani charm” was an oxymoron.  Anyone who has ever seen Rudy on TV knows that it is true.

That is the man who is the apparent frontrunner for the job of Secretary of State: America’s chief diplomat and face to the world.  The truly revolting thing, however, is that he would actually be a better choice than his competitor, John Bolton, who would be pushing us into new wars all over the globe at the drop of a hat.

We’re going to have to hope that the Republicans in the Senate can force Trump to nominate someone more presentable.  Since Trump’s views on foreign policy are so far outside of the mainstream, that is far from a given.

For some inexplicable reason, Trump always plays this song at his rallies, but it fits much better in this context.

You Can’t Always Get What You Want

I saw you today post-election.

Devastated;  your eyes full of tears.

You were stunned at the voters’ defection.

Now the world just looks full of fear.

 

(Chorus)

You can’t always get what you want.

You can’t always get what you want.

You can’t always get what you want.

But if you try sometimes

You just might find

You get what you need.

 

I was standing in line at the polling station.

Trump folks to my left and my right.

I was looking forward to a celebration.

What I got was a really long night.

I went home and I turned on the TV

Expecting an ocean of blue.

It was islands of blue in a red sea.

And that’s when I finally knew.

 

(Chorus)

 

So where in the world do we go now?

Just hang on to what you believe.

We’ll just find a way through all this somehow.

It’s not like we all can just leave.

 

(Chorus)

 

Parody of “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” by the Rolling Stones.

I anticipate that Trump will wash his hands of the Palestinians early in his term and essentially give Netanyahu a free hand to do whatever he wants.  You might think, on its face, that he will be giving the Israelis a great deal, but the reality will be much more complex, for the following reasons:

1.  Nature and politics abhor a vacuum:  If the US no longer wants to act as mediator, the Russians and the EU will be happy to step in.  The Israelis don’t trust either of those alternatives.

2.  Keeping hope alive keeps the Palestinians quiet:  Ongoing US involvement in an illusory peace process helps to prevent violence.  If the process completely expires and the Palestinians decide they have nothing to lose, the likelihood of a third intifada goes up.

3.  What are we getting for our money?  At some point, Trump is bound to look around and start asking himself why the US is giving so much aid to Israel and getting so little in return.

 

 

 

The ex-KGB man Vlad Putin.

For his old buddy Trump he was rootin’.

So he ordered attacks;

Lots of DNC hacks;

And his guy won it all, you’re darn tootin’.

The ex-Breitbart man named Steve Bannon.

He’s working for Trump and for mammon.

On the doorstep of power,

He’s the man of the hour,

Like a circus freak shot from a cannon.

During the last few weeks of his campaign, Trump predicted an outcome similar to the Brexit vote.  In a nutshell, he was right.  His voters and the Brexit voters were essentially the same kind of people with the same kinds of fears.

If you spin out the analogy to the present day, it shouldn’t comfort him very much.  The British government is badly divided on how to proceed with Brexit. The pound has fallen dramatically.  Investment has slowed to a crawl. Nationalist parties have a new cause.  Stagflation and constitutional issues loom.

A lot of this is going to look familiar in the US over the next year or so.

As I indicated in Friday’s post, Trump’s foreign policy really will be operated on the basis of some well-defined (albeit stupid) concepts.  In practice, however, his ignorance of conditions throughout the world may make it difficult for him to apply them consistently.

The following will be the hallmarks of his diplomacy:

1.  It’s both business and personal:  Trump will view himself as the nation’s negotiator-in-chief, so look for him to spend lots of face time with foreign leaders, including bad hombres like Kim Jong Un.

2.  It’s blustery out there:  Trump thinks that previous administrations didn’t play their hand strongly enough in the past.  Expect lots of shouting, table pounding, nasty tweets, walkouts, and threats of war (both trade and military).

3.  One administration, many voices:  Given his lack of familiarity with the people and the conditions on the ground, expect him to change his mind openly and repeatedly, depending on the last person who spoke to him.  In addition, there will be plenty of officials at the State Department offering “clarifications” after he oversteps his bounds.  The result will be chaos, which may be part of his plan;  after all, he likes to remain as unpredictable as possible in order to strengthen his negotiating hand.

4.  Passive-aggression:  He craves popularity, so he will probably make a practice of telling other leaders what they want to hear to their face, and then contradict himself when he gets home.  That’s what he did in Mexico.

In other words, think of him as Duterte with nukes.  It will be a roller coaster, to be sure:  new crises and opportunities every day.

It’s all about Trump, now, of course, so for the next several weeks, I will be posting about various aspects of the new administration:

Trump Versus the World will address our relationships with various countries throughout the world.

Trump, Ryan, and the Welfare State will discuss the GOP’s plans for the safety net, with a few suggestions for improvement thrown in.

The Trump Domestic Agenda will talk about tax and trade policy and a variety of other items on the domestic agenda.

The Strong Man and the System, finally, will identify various checks and balances in our political system and speculate as to how successful they will be.

Enjoy!

You might think it is Paul Ryan, but you would be wrong.  Ryan doesn’t suffer from overweening personal ambition; he only cares about his odious ideological agenda.  Most of it is going to become law whether he remains Speaker or not.

No, in spite of holding his Senate seat, the real loser was Marco Rubio, who, of all of the 2016 also-rans, was best positioned to be the GOP candidate in 2020. Unlike Ryan, he desperately wants to be President.  Now he’s third in line, and his next best chance will come at the end of what is likely to be a deeply unpopular Republican administration.

Am I shedding any tears for him?  Alas, no.  On the other hand, this time he will actually have to keep his promise and spend all six boring years in the Senate, so my state will actually have two functioning Senators.

To put this in proper perspective, the Clinton campaign did plenty of things right. She performed very well in the debates.   She raised lots of money, had a good ground game, and ran professional commercials.  In the end, she won the popular vote.

That said, here is what cost her the election:

1.  She never came up with a satisfactory response to the e-mail issue.  Duh. The false equivalence between Trump’s outrageous behavior and the e-mail issue was decisive with lots of swing voters.

2.  She never made much of an effort to connect with rural voters.  From the very beginning of this blog, I have tried to make the case that the Democrats need to show more sensitivity to rural voters and culture.  It wouldn’t hurt to spend some time with country musicians, or go to a NASCAR race, or accept that guns will only be regulated on a state and local level.  Campaigning with Beyonce and Jay-Z doesn’t help with swing voters.

3.  She spent too much time talking about Trump’s character, and not enough about his policies.   We were treated to an avalanche of commercials about what a disgusting human being Trump is, but essentially nothing about his tax plan, spending cuts, and climate change views.  At some point, the avalanche became pointless;  in fact, by highlighting Trump’s, shall we say, unconventional behavior, she probably made the case for him as a plausible change agent.

Normally, when a Republican takes office, he can call upon a pool of qualified people from the last GOP administration to fill the newly vacated positions.  In Trump’s case, however, he has been bitterly critical of Bush 43’s foreign policy, and his ideas about foreign relations are completely out of the mainstream of either party.  In addition to that, his short attention span, his history of random, erratic interventions, and his hunger for popularity suggest that he is incapable of either supporting his subordinates or selecting a course of action and sticking to it when things get tough. As a result, I think the Trump State Department is going to be led by people with odd ideas and no reputation in the international community.

It’s going to be a wild ride–no doubt about it.