Month: November 2016

I can’t say I know how much of the EU will be left, or what it will look like, during the Trump Administration.  That will depend to some extent on the outcome of December’s Italian referendum, and more on the French election next year.

Assuming, for purposes of argument, that the EU soldiers on pretty much as before, its relations with the US are likely to be pretty frosty, because Trump will perceive it as a weak talking shop that preaches too much about human rights, does little to control terrorists, and runs a huge trade surplus with the US.  My guess is that Turkey will be the first flash point (Trump will support Erdogan’s crackdown, but the EU won’t), and things will just deteriorate from there.

The ultimate beneficiary of this, of course, will be Putin.

As the story goes, during the height of the French Revolution, the local revolutionaries were hopelessly split over what to do with the cathedral.  One faction wanted to desecrate it, while the other favored demolition.  A committee was set up to mediate the issue.  The arguments dragged on and on, until conditions changed and everybody moved on to other issues.  As a result, the cathedral stands proudly, undesecrated, today.

Something similar may be the best hope for Obamacare.  Can the GOP unite around a plan that doesn’t destroy the markets and doesn’t represent political suicide?  That remains to be seen.  One thing is for certain:  the Democrats struggled mightily to pass Obamacare with more votes in the Senate than the GOP has now, so this isn’t going to be easy.

Trump expressed far more moderate views in the interview than he did on the campaign trail.  Are you surprised?  I can pretty well guarantee you that he will say the exact opposite the next time he meets with a group of right-wing supporters.  That is partly due to his belief that being unpredictable is good tactics, partly to his desire to be admired by whomever is in the room at the time, and partly to the fact that he knows very little about policy, and cares even less. If the truth is a casualty in this process, well, truth is just power in a tuxedo.

The “Real Trump” truly believes that he can run the country the way he runs his businesses.  His mercantilist opinions are genuine;  he has held them for decades. He thinks that businessmen like himself know best, and will do whatever he can to unleash them.  He will react violently to affronts to American (or his own) self-esteem, and he has an intense belief in his own ability to negotiate.  Everything else will be on the table, and failure, or at least the perception of it, will not be tolerated, even if the law is on the other side.

The roller coaster starts running in 58 days.

A few thoughts on the “special relationship” under President Trump:

1.  Obviously, someone needs to explain to Trump that Theresa May speaks for the UK, not Nigel Farage.  You would think that would be a fairly simple concept for him to grasp, but apparently not.
2.  Trump’s property interests in the UK are going to be an ongoing problem.
3.  The British government is going to want to start discussing a trade agreement as soon as possible in order to create some leverage in its EU negotiations and to prove to skeptics that Brexit won’t be a disaster.  As I understand it, the Obama Administration takes the position that the Brexit negotiations have to be resolved first.  Given Trump’s feelings about trade, don’t expect that position to change.
4.  The UK doesn’t run a big trade surplus with the US, and it carries its share of the load within NATO.  That will help.
5.  Don’t be surprised if Trump reacts strongly if, as I anticipate, the British press has plenty of nasty things to say about him.

Expect the “special relationship” to stagger on, with some major hiccups along the road.

Only Donald Trump could come up with the idea that he could somehow direct the British government to appoint someone of his choosing as the new ambassador to the United States.   For his next trick, he will probably be telling the Scots not to approve any wind farms around his golf course–or else.

Being an American overseas is going to be very embarrassing, at best, for the next four years.

The Middle East man known as Sisi.

He and Trump will soon be kissy-kissy.

When the stuff hits the fan

Will the Don have a plan?

Don’t expect things to be quite so blissy.

His name notwithstanding, Sisi is Trump’s kind of guy:  a strong man terrorist fighter.  Of course, he has no idea how to run his country, and he has been far more successful at muzzling democratic dissenters than at killing terrorists, but for Trump, those are just details.

Down the road, the real question is, what happens when the Egyptians get sick of Sisi?  How does Trump react when masses of people start going out on the streets again?  Is he going to send American troops to shoot them down?  Will the US and Russia work together to suppress democratic forces throughout the Middle East on the grounds that ostensibly democratic movements inevitably lead to chaos and terrorism?

Don’t be surprised if it happens.

A few months ago, I posed this question:  is America a mosaic or a sheet of ruled paper?  We have our answer;  the election was decided by white people who have concluded that the system is stacked against them and in favor of minorities.  There are no data to support that, but one never wants to let the facts get in the way of a good story.

And so, it is true:  white is the new black, at least in American politics.

The AG-in-waiting Jeff Sessions.

To his critics Trump’s made no concessions.

On matters of race

He’s a very tough case.

He’ll use torture to get more confessions.

Ironically, the Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times” will apply to China itself in its dealings with the new Trump Administration.

On the down side, of course, you have the likelihood of a trade war, which would dramatically reduce Chinese exports and create some potential for social instability at home.  Trump’s temper and unpredictability also make an actual shooting war over slights to American pride a real possibility.  On the other hand, Trump’s lack of interest in human rights will be a distinct plus, his rejection of the TPP gives China a huge opening to create its own geopolitical rules in the Pacific Rim area, and his statements about protecting South Korea and Japan suggest that he will pull back from Asia and tolerate a Chinese sphere of influence there.  Finally, his unpredictability will damage American credibility throughout the world, and make stable Chinese leadership look like a viable alternative.

Yes, on balance, if Trump actually does what he promised to do, he will be making China, not America, great again.

Can Trump make America great?

We don’t have much longer to wait.

With his cuts and his wars

Our lives won’t be a bore

But the changes you’re likely to hate.

Trump has, of course, been bitterly critical of Obama’s Cuba diplomacy for opportunistic reasons.  Will he really attempt to renegotiate the deal when he takes office?

I doubt it.  Trump doesn’t care about human rights.  Cuba doesn’t sponsor terrorism or run a large trade surplus with the US.  There are plenty of business opportunities there for him and his friends.  Increasing the standard of living in Cuba can help prevent immigration.  In other words, there is every reason, from Trump’s perspective, to improve relations, and no reason to stop.  Expect this issue to die quietly.

Imagine that you are the Prime Minister of Iraq.  You are the head of a political system that was imposed by the invading Americans.  A substantial, but diminishing, part of your country is controlled by IS.  The Kurds are your nominal allies in the battle against IS, but their ultimate objective is independence.  The Turks want a slice of your country.  Iranian influence is very strong, but is opposed by everyone else.  A political solution satisfactory to both Shias and Sunnis is nowhere in sight, but is essential if your country is ever to operate as a functional whole.

Now, add to the mix a new American President who was bitterly critical of the invasion after the fact and continues to say that the US should take Iraq’s oil.   In all likelihood, the best you can hope for is a victory over IS before he takes office, and indifference thereafter.  It is, alas, much more likely that the chaos in your country will simply morph into different forms after the demise of IS, and you will no longer be able to rely on America for help.

Good luck:  you’re going to need it.

For Erdogan, Trump’s election creates a truly historic opportunity.  Expect him to take full advantage of it.

At some point during the next year, I anticipate that there will be a deal made by the Trump Administration, Putin, and Erdogan, to consist of the following:

1. Assad will remain in power in Syria indefinitely.  Elections will be held as a face-saving measure.
2. Erdogan is given a free hand to deal with all of his enemies.  This will include Kurdish military and political entities in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq.
3. The US agrees to deport Gulen.
4. All of the parties agree to work together to destroy IS in Syria and Iraq.  The “caliphate” will barely exist at that point, anyway.
5. All Iranian advisers are sent home, and Hezbollah troops are required to leave the country.

This will be presented by all of the parties as a huge victory over terrorists and Iran.  The big losers, of course, will be the remaining non-IS rebels in Syria and the Kurds everywhere, but Trump will view the Kurds as history’s losers, and will have no reservations about selling them out.  Democracy in Turkey will wither away; the real winner will be the authoritarian state.

The economy was roaring in 2000.  Unemployment was negligible, the DJIA was doing well, and the federal government was running a large surplus.  Wages were increasing at a rate not seen in years.  The US had no serious rivals abroad. It was a golden age, but nobody recognized it, because everyone’s attention was fixed on Bill Clinton, Monica, and the GOP.  We elected George W. Bush, and you know how that turned out.

Today, the unemployment rate is below 5 percent, the DJIA is at record levels, interest rates, gas prices, and inflation are very low, wages are finally beginning to increase at an acceptable rate, and we aren’t engaged in any large-scale land wars.  And so, we just elected a chaos agent.

I guess it figures.  What were those Joni Mitchell lyrics again?