Trump Versus the World: China

Ironically, the Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times” will apply to China itself in its dealings with the new Trump Administration.

On the down side, of course, you have the likelihood of a trade war, which would dramatically reduce Chinese exports and create some potential for social instability at home.  Trump’s temper and unpredictability also make an actual shooting war over slights to American pride a real possibility.  On the other hand, Trump’s lack of interest in human rights will be a distinct plus, his rejection of the TPP gives China a huge opening to create its own geopolitical rules in the Pacific Rim area, and his statements about protecting South Korea and Japan suggest that he will pull back from Asia and tolerate a Chinese sphere of influence there.  Finally, his unpredictability will damage American credibility throughout the world, and make stable Chinese leadership look like a viable alternative.

Yes, on balance, if Trump actually does what he promised to do, he will be making China, not America, great again.