For Erdogan, Trump’s election creates a truly historic opportunity. Expect him to take full advantage of it.
At some point during the next year, I anticipate that there will be a deal made by the Trump Administration, Putin, and Erdogan, to consist of the following:
- Assad will remain in power in Syria indefinitely. Elections will be held as a face-saving measure.
- Erdogan is given a free hand to deal with all of his enemies. This will include Kurdish military and political entities in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq.
- The US agrees to deport Gulen.
- All of the parties agree to work together to destroy IS in Syria and Iraq. The “caliphate” will barely exist at that point, anyway.
- All Iranian advisers are sent home, and Hezbollah troops are required to leave the country.
This will be presented by all of the parties as a huge victory over terrorists and Iran. The big losers, of course, will be the remaining non-IS rebels in Syria and the Kurds everywhere, but Trump will view the Kurds as history’s losers, and will have no reservations about selling them out. Democracy in Turkey will wither away; the real winner will be the authoritarian state.