Imagine that you are Prime Minister Abe of Japan. Your country’s economy is stagnant, your population is aging rapidly, your debt is reaching the stratosphere, and you rely on the US for protection. China, your neighbor, is much larger, unfriendly, and growing far more rapidly. What do you do?
You have three choices:
- Bury your head in the sand and hope the problems go away by themselves;
- Attempt to persuade the population to accept large scale immigration and huge increases in the defense budget in order to deter potential aggression from China; or
- Make the best deal you can with China as soon as possible. Given the history of China’s treatment of vassal states, it is realistic to think you can preserve your political and economic systems and most of your independence as long as you toe the line on a few foreign policy issues that are important to the Chinese.
Abe is trying a highly watered down version of #2, but has had very limited success. In the long run, my best guess is that #3 will be the choice.