Many Americans believe in a caricature version of France: a dying country with a huge welfare state where nobody can be bothered to do any work. In reality, the size of the French welfare state is fairly unremarkable, its workers are very productive, and the country, relative to all of the EU nations except Germany, is growing at a reasonable pace.
And there lies the rub. Germany, as a result of labor market reforms proposed by an ostensibly socialist government about fifteen years ago, is growing much faster than France. The EU was essentially designed as a partnership between France and Germany, but everyone recognizes that it is an unequal relationship now, and that is an affront to the French public.
The problem with France is not the size of its welfare state, but its labor regulations, which have discouraged investment and created two classes of workers: one (mostly old workers) with excessive protections; and a second (mostly young) with none. You would think that the young workers would rise up and attempt to overthrow this regime, but they have embraced it in the hope that they, too, will benefit from it when their time comes.
The French people are perfectly aware of this situation, but have been unable to do anything about it. What typically happens is that the government (both left and right-wing) proposes some very moderate reforms, the unions go out on the street, the reforms get watered down even further, and the result is weak legislation which does little good, but creates suspicion about the government’s ultimate motives when the cycle begins anew.
What does this mean for 2030? Reforms are clearly necessary, but significant change in France typically happens in convulsions. Expect at least one such convulsion between now and then–possibly shortly after the 2017 election, which could be won by Le Pen.