As we watch Putin strut his stuff in Ukraine and the Middle East, it is tempting to think that his aggressive behavior has “made Russia great again.” That’s certainly the impression he is trying to create, but it isn’t true. The fact is that both Syria and Ukraine were run by strong men allied with Russia in early 2014; today, Ukraine is a hostile state, and Syria is a shambles. In spite of its military and diplomatic displays, Russia is weaker today than it was two years ago, and that doesn’t even take its economic problems into account.
When you project the condition of the country out to 2030, it only gets worse. At that point, Russia will almost certainly have endured a succession crisis; the history of second acts behind strong men isn’t pretty (just ask Maduro about that). The population and average life spans are declining. The country doesn’t sell anything that anyone wants to buy except oil and natural gas, both of which will have less value over time, as renewables become more affordable. The political system practically runs on corruption. Anyone with money wants to leave.
It’s hard to be optimistic in the long run. In the short run, it’s all smoke and mirrors.