Brexit was truly an event with world-wide consequences. Here is my analysis:
Winners:
1. Boris Johnson: His chances of becoming the next Prime Minister just rose substantially, although it is far from a sure thing.
2. Nicola Sturgeon: The second referendum on Scottish independence is now inevitable, and this time, it will probably pass.
3. Vladimir Putin: Maintaining a united European front against Russian aggression will become more difficult.
4. Marine LePen: The French only support the EU when it acts as their poodle. Today, it’s a German Shepherd. Frexit will be on the table in 2017.
5. Hillary Clinton: The reactions of the markets to Brexit are a cautionary tale for a Trump victory in November. I will have more on this when my Trump moratorium expires next week.
6. Your UK vacation: It just got a lot cheaper.
Losers:
1. The UK: Your country just got a lot poorer, less powerful, and less stable. Scottish independence is on the way.
2. David Cameron: He put his party before his country by promising the referendum and paid the price for it.
3. George Osborne: He was once almost assured to be Cameron’s successor, but now that is up in the air.
4. The Conservative Party: The divisions and wounds will be difficult to heal.
5. Angela Merkel: Without clear vision and strong leadership, the EU will devolve into a bickering, protectionist mess. Losing the UK won’t help.
6. Expats: No elaboration necessary.
7. Your 401(k): Look at what the markets are doing this morning.