I had some technical problems posting while I was on vacation, but now I’m back. I will be focusing on the conventions and the general election this week, but I thought it would be appropriate to start by reviewing my predictions for the primaries and drawing any necessary conclusions.
I was right about the Democrats. In spite of all of the furor about Sanders, I said from the beginning to the end that he had no effective route to the nomination, and he didn’t. The only remaining question is whether his ideas will continue to influence the party through the convention, the general election, and thereafter. My guess is that he will have less influence on the Democrats as they move ahead than you might be tempted to think, as much of his support is simply a negative reaction among some voting groups to Hillary’s “corruption,” but, of course, that remains to be seen.
My record on the GOP was mixed. I was right to ignore the Carson and Fiorina boomlets, and all of my scenarios had either Trump or Cruz, the last two standing, ultimately prevailing, which isn’t bad. On the other hand, I did say Cruz would win, and that was obviously a mistake. I made two significant miscalculations about the process:
1. I thought Cruz would win the Deep South and carry that momentum to the nomination. His social conservatism seemed to be a great fit for the South, but it proved to be no match for Trump’s nationalism and bigotry. We learned quite a lot about the priorities of a large number of Reactionaries along the way.
2. I thought Rubio, not Kasich, would be a factor in the race through the primaries in the Northeast. I don’t think anyone could have predicted that Marco would have fallen so far, so fast.
The general election will be a completely different animal. Much more on that later in the week.