There is plenty of skepticism about the partial Russian withdrawal from Syria. Given Putin’s history, the skepticism is obviously justified, but the Russian intervention was not a secret and appeared to be successful, so it is likely that he is telling the truth.
So, why withdraw now? Or, to restate the question, what exactly are Putin’s objectives in Syria, other than his obvious interest in maintaining his military and diplomatic asset there?
I can see four possible reasons for the withdrawal, which are not mutually exclusive:
1. He is paying an unacceptable price for the intervention at home. I would like to think that was true, but I don’t see any evidence to support it.
2. He is sending a message to Assad that he only maintains his position at the sufferance of Russia. There is every reason to believe that Putin doesn’t trust Assad, and in any event, the Russians are in a struggle for influence with his Iranian backers. There is at least an element of truth to this one.
3. Putin really wants a diplomatic solution to Syria, albeit one that protects his interests and maintains at least some semblance of the regime in power. If so, that would be very encouraging, as we have no compelling interest in reducing Russian influence in Syria. The ideal solution to Syria was always a compromise in which Assad left power in favor of a more acceptable member of the regime who could do business with both the moderate rebels and the Russians.
4. Putin is concerned that if he goes too far, the Turks will send ground forces into Syria. At some point, that is likely to happen, particularly if the Russians start getting too close to the Kurds. Stopping now eliminates the potential for a confrontation with the Turks, and possibly all of NATO, that would be extremely dangerous for all sides, but particularly for the Russians.