Whither Trump?

Spoiler alert:  the title is a pun.

I, and others following me, have analogized the Trump campaign to a bubble. The point of my analogy was that relying on polling evidence of success to actually create victories was not likely to work in the long run.  However, the weakness of the analogy is that it suggests the Trump phenomenon is completely lacking in substance, and will suddenly and mysteriously disappear once the bubble has popped.  I don’t think that is the case.

The Trump campaign is not completely based on winning; it also taps into some real anger on the part of declining middle and working class whites about immigration and globalization, which really are two manifestations of the same issue.  In addition, Trump has damaged his business brand with his campaign, and has burned plenty of bridges, so he has every incentive to fight on, and he will.

In other words, I think a better analogy than the popping of a bubble for the eventual demise of his campaign is a deflated balloon.  It will continue to hang around, and will even capture some victories along the way (e.g., New Hampshire), but it will slowly become less relevant over time.