On the Floors and Ceilings of the Candidates

The election process is, in a real sense, just a very public version of a job interview.  The three most important concerns for the electorate are:

  1. The resume:  Does the candidate have the requisite experience to do the job?
  2. Personal characteristics:  Does the candidate have the right skills and temperament?
  3. Business plan (i.e., ideology):  Where does the candidate think we should go from here?

In this post, I will be discussing #2 without reference to ideology, but by using a device common to sports fans who are discussing the merits of particular players in the draft.  For example, if you are the Cleveland Browns in the 2014 draft, and you have a choice between Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel, the former is a fairly predictable pick with limited distance between his ceiling and floor (a successful game manager, like Alex Smith), while the latter, given his skills, height, and personality issues, could be anyone from Fran Tarkenton (a Hall of Famer) to Ryan Leaf (a complete bust).

With that in mind, what are the ceilings and floors of the most significant remaining candidates?  Here are my choices:

  1. Donald Trump:  Ceiling–Huey Long, an outrageous populist who managed to improve conditions for the poor in Louisiana while running roughshod over the system and the law.  Floor–George Wallace, a race-baiting demagogue with no notable accomplishments with which I am familiar.
  2. Ted Cruz:  Ceiling– Calvin Coolidge, an austere small government conservative who was fortunate enough to be President during a boom.  Floor–Richard Nixon, with whom he shares similar talents and barely-suppressed hatred of his opponents.  If you have “New York values,” you and millions of others are already on Ted’s enemies list.
  3. Marco Rubio:  Ceiling–Barack Obama, also a youthful and inspiring candidate.  Floor–Jimmy Carter, inexperienced in Washington and over his head.
  4. Bernie Sanders:  Ceiling–FDR, in the unlikely event he manages to pull off the “Sanders Revolution” and build a new welfare state.  Floor–Harry Truman, speaking plainly about a GOP majority that prevents him from accomplishing anything.
  5. Hillary Clinton:  Ceiling and Floor–LBJ.  I have posted on this analogy previously.