Ezra Klein posted an article on Vox.com yesterday in which he essentially argued that Trump would ultimately lose as a result of GOP voter pragmatism and some indescribable event similar to what happened to Howard Dean in 2004. I don’t think the formula is that mysterious. In addition to voter pragmatism, here are the reasons I think his support will wither quickly after Iowa:
1. Sooner or later, the GOP enforcers will wake up and start running a barrage of negative ads about Trump’s many past and present left-wing deviations from party orthodoxy: I have written on this before, so no further elaboration is necessary.
2. Defeat in Iowa will dent Trump’s image as a winner: Trump’s appeal is uniquely based on the (completely incorrect) public perception that he is a strong man who never loses at anything. If and when Cruz beats him in Iowa, this rationale for his candidacy disappears.
If these two things don’t occur, I believe the establishment pundits are wrong and that Trump actually will get the nomination. If they do, the next question is how he will react, and what it will mean to the GOP. I will discuss that in a subsequent post.