In this scenario, Cruz wins Iowa due to his superior ground game and evangelical support, while either Rubio or Bush wins New Hampshire (a Christie win, due to the weakness of his campaign elsewhere, is only meaningful in that it is a loss for Trump). This scenario results in the following:
- Trump’s support drops rapidly. He ultimately withdraws, snarling about how the party has treated him unfairly.
- The establishment rallies around the New Hampshire winner.
- The winner in South Carolina is the likely nominee. I would put my money on Cruz, but a Rubio/Bush victory is possible.
- Cruz will win the SEC primary and many of the Great Plains states, but it will not be enough if Rubio/Bush win in South Carolina.