With one very notable exception, 2015 was a year of adjusting to the new normal in Nigeria-with-nukes. The principal story lines were as follows:
1. The price of oil continued to fall, and austerity bit: However, the ruble stabilized, and Putin managed to find enough money in reserves to keep his political allies happy. Never underestimate the stoicism of the Russian people.
2. Military action in Ukraine diminished substantially: Having accomplished his military objectives, Putin has decided to wait and see if Ukraine will implode and fall into Russian hands. He is playing a long game here; control of the eastern part of Ukraine is a means to an end, not an end in and of itself.
3. Putin doubled down on his support for Assad by intervening directly in the war. He has made very little progress, and lost both a civilian and a military plane for his pains.
4. There was a splashy new opening to China, but results on the ground were meager, and are likely to remain so for years to come.
The big questions for 2016 are:
1. Will there be an upsurge in terrorism as a result of the Syrian intervention?
2. Is Putin willing and able to move towards a genuine political solution in Syria? It does not appear at this point that the combination of Russian air power and Hezbollah ground forces are sufficient to win the war for Assad. If Putin really wants to put an end to the war and retain Russian influence in Syria, he will have to show some real flexibility over regime change.