On Rising Inequality, Declining Opportunity, and Wage Stagnation

These are three related, but different, phenomena that call for different governmental responses.  I will try to tease them out there.

Rising Inequality

While a few right-wing economists maintain that inequality is not, in fact, rising, they are outliers; all of the credible evidence suggests that it is–not just in the US, but throughout the world.  The principal drivers of  increased inequality are globalization and technological change, but it has been exacerbated by government policies on taxing and spending, particularly in this country.

Is the average American really upset about this state of affairs?  I would say not, because, to the average American, the super-rich are sports and media stars, not hedge fund managers, and the nexus between their work and their compensation is obvious.  It is true that LeBron James, for example, is not typical of the average plutocrat, who is much more likely to be a CEO or a financial honcho, but I don’t think the American public views it that way.  In any event, people are more likely to view inequality in the context of people they know, and the lifestyle of a typical CEO is not something with which average people are familiar.

Rising inequality is both a political and an economic problem.  It is an economic problem because the shrinking of the middle class leads to a smaller base of consumers and, therefore, increased instability; the political problem, in the age of Citizens United, obviously is an unfair degree of access to politicians and regulators.  That said, I don’t think inequality by itself is the source of the widespread unhappiness with the political system that has manifested itself both on the left and the right.

Declining Opportunity

There is also plenty of evidence that American society is becoming more oligarchical as a result of the convergence of a knowledge-based economy and the propensity of well-educated people to marry and cluster together in similar communities.  There isn’t a whole lot the government can do about this;  to the extent that it does have some power, it involves changes to the educational system that will have to work themselves out over decades.  I don’t think this explains popular concern about the economy, either.

Stagnant Wages

If wages were rising at a historically high rate, but profits were increasing at an even higher rate, would working people be complaining?  I doubt it.  Wage stagnation, not inequality, is the principal source of frustration with the system.

All of the evidence I have seen indicates that stagnating wages have been a problem since the late 1970’s.  The principal reasons for stagnating wages are globalization and technological change, and how they are perceived by working people.  If you believe that your job is under threat every day by a machine or someone in India, labor militancy is probably not in your future.  The withering away of unions is also a factor, although the ongoing relevance of unions in an economy in which the means of production are frequently laptop computers is debatable at best.

Is this state of affairs immutable?  No, for reasons I will discuss in a subsequent post.

The Marco Mirage

Several moderate center-right pundits, most notably David Brooks, breathed a sigh of relief after the last debate, because they now view Marco, a supposed responsible establishment candidate, as the front-runner.  It has to be said, however, that some center-left pundits have fallen under his spell, as well;  I suppose that is no surprise, since Marco’s youth, back story, and occasional lucidity make him look more like a Democrat than a Republican.  In other words, when the other GOP candidates bash him for looking like a new Obama, that only endears him to the left.  But does the medium coincide with the message?

No.  Consider the following:

  1. Marco indicated in the first debate that he supported a total ban on abortion, with no exceptions.
  2. His tax plan, memorably described as “puppies and rainbows” by Josh Barro, is heavily weighted towards the extremely wealthy.
  3. His energy plan can be described succinctly as “Drill, baby, drill.”
  4. He is not prepared to take any steps to ameliorate climate change.
  5. Other than Lindsey Graham, who is in a class by himself, he is the most hawkish of the GOP candidates.
  6. He has collaborated with Ted Cruz to try to shut down the government.
  7. His Obamacare replacement plan is intended to move workers out of employer plans and into individual policies.  There is a case to be made for that, but it can’t be denied that it would be a major change.

Does that sound like a “moderate” to you?

Lines Suitable for Sunday

We Didn’t Come From Nothing

White noise from my TV.

Days of fear and rage.

Walls are rising everywhere.

It’s not a golden age.

 

Gridlock all around us.

Thinking white and black.

Today the road of progress

Looks like a cul-de-sac.

 

Hamilton and Jefferson

Lincoln/Douglas, too.

FDR and GOP

Conflict’s nothing new.

 

We didn’t come from nothing.

We’ve been through it before.

You don’t need to be cynical

If you know the score.